Island Kitty(anyone else), anyway to accurately...

potential incoming inclement weather? I really have very little experience in this subject (NY, we don%26#39;t get too much of anything besides snow). I guess what I%26#39;m looking 4 is a 2-3 week forecast 4 potential weather( weather.com just Katrina for now, understandibly). Also, what exactly does it take 4 the island 2 shut down. Is it just the threat of a storm? I%26#39;d come anyway if it is just going 2 rain and be windy, but how quick are they to shut down. I mean to evac. would be crazy we%26#39;re there for poker run I imagine the route 1 will be filled (motorcycles) and if the airport is shut down where do we go? Additionally, what does happen if we cannot get there? Does the airline let us reschedule or be refunded? We are staying at the KW Harbor Inn, will they let us pick another time? Just wondering if any of you have ever had this happen. Any help would be appreciated. -David

Go Eagles!

Island Kitty(anyone else), anyway to accurately...

If there was a way to predict exactly, we would not have the disaster in LA %26amp; MS now.

Go to weather.com...... watch the maps of the Atlantic and make your best guess.

Each airline handles that differently, but if they are flying - you should be too or you will just lose. Harbor Inn would let you pick another time, if they were actually closed by the weather. If they were open, you would lose here also.

Your best bet is travel insurance, but that too must be bought before the storm is named and if it%26#39;s just yucky weather, not horriffic, it will not pay out.

If you just don%26#39;t want to be there on a rainy day, don%26#39;t make plans because there is no insurance against that.

As far as having to evacuate during the poker run, I don%26#39;t even want to think of it........there is only one road in and out for tourist and residents and I%26#39;d hate to be on two wheels in that traffic jam . Planes will fly as long as they feel their people, passengers %26amp; equipment are safe.

All that said, have a blast if you go ahead with your plans!

Island Kitty(anyone else), anyway to accurately...

By all means, travel no matter what!If the blow is worse than cat 2 I would maybe think twice but here%26#39;s what happened to us: We traveled the day of Hurricane Dennis. We had to try because of the terms of our plane ticket insurance. We got to Key West the day after Dennis. We also stayed at the Key West Harbor Inn. We just kept calling the Inn to let them know what was going on. We got there two days late and they refunded our money. The island was fine. We live in WI and it was like a bad thunderstorm had gone through. Otherwise it was fine. Just remember, the airlines won%26#39;t let you go somewhere if it%26#39;s not safe. And if the island is evacuated while you are there, well, you%26#39;ll just have listen to the staff at the Inn. Leonardo and Tracey are great. We have been there twice now, they remember you from year to year. We will never go anywhere else as long as the island is still there.

I just glanced over an article on the NOAA website. Here I quote ';NOAA expects an additional 11 to 14 tropical storms from August through November, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes.';

This is from the article ';NOAA Raises the 2005 Hurricane Outlook:Bulk of This Season%26#39;s Storms Still to Come.';

If you go to their website you can track storms as they develop in the Atlantic ocean. That is the best anyone can do. Even as they develop, it isn%26#39;t know exactly where they will hit until a few days before.

http://www.noaa.gov/

Forgive me if this sounds harsh, Manateelady, but attitudes like that put people in harm%26#39;s way. I%26#39;m from the Midwest, and I can assure you that Dennis was in NO WAY just like a bad Midwestern thunderstorm, unless you routinely get 18 hours of 50 to 70 mph winds (with higher gusts) during your thunderstorms. Katrina for us was more like a bad thunderstorm -- again, if a T-S to you is 10 inches of rain and 18 hours of 40-plus winds. Some folks here say, ';Oh, it was just a little rain and wind,'; but it%26#39;s really A LOT of rain and A LOT of wind, and it%26#39;s not advisable to put yourself in it unless you have to be. To say that you%26#39;d recommend being here if it was a Cat 1 or Cat 2 is really foolhardy. A Cat 2 can turn into a Cat 4 with little time to evacuate (witness Charley last year), so it%26#39;s nothing to fool around with. Until the NHC can reliably predict when and how a storm will strengthen, I plan to evacuate for anything that%26#39;s more than a Cat 1 when it%26#39;s bearing down on us. Katrina wasn%26#39;t even forecast to affect the Lower Keys ... the tropical storm warning wasn%26#39;t posted until a half hour before we got hit by the first bands. A lot of us weren%26#39;t prepared... we%26#39;d used up our hurricane supplies during Dennis and hadn%26#39;t replenished them yet, so we%26#39;re darn lucky that only 10,000 or so of us were without power for a day.

You%26#39;ve seen what%26#39;s happening in La. and Miss., and you%26#39;ve heard all the people who%26#39;ve said their homes survived Camille so they thought they%26#39;d be safe. Tragically, they were wrong. We have no control over these things, and we can%26#39;t become complacent about them.

Now to your question, Mozzle: There are at least two systems brewing out there that could turn into problems, but that doesn%26#39;t necessarily mean they%26#39;ll be problems for KW if they do develop. They%26#39;re also way out there, so experts have plenty of time to study and track them. Storms like Dennis and Katrina, which popped up fairly quickly, are the scariest ones because there isn%26#39;t a lot of time for anyone to react. Because of our location, anything heading into the Gulf is worrisome, so emergency managers err on the side of caution. That often means evacuation orders come sooner rather than later; in theory, tourists will be ordered out 24 hours before the rest of us if the NHC track has it coming our way a couple of days out. Because of the way Dennis developed, there were only about five hours between the orders. The important thing is to go right when you%26#39;re told to go, so the rest of us have a chance. Odds are pretty good that nothing much will happen, but you don%26#39;t want to be around when the odds go against us. (I know I won%26#39;t be.)

If a mandatory evacuation order is issued, you should have no problems with the airlines or hotels. If you%26#39;ve booked through travelocity or someone else, it might be more of a hassle.

My advice is to come on down unless told otherwise. If there is a storm, and an evacuation order comes out the second you land, that%26#39;s just the luck of the draw. You%26#39;ll have plenty of time to get out of harm%26#39;s way. Keep an eye on the tropical forecast and hope for the best. (And donate some money to help our neighbors in Miss. and La.)

IslandKitty, love your picture of the Key Deer, we%26#39;lll be on Big Pine tomorrow night. I was there in July and we saw a pair of twin fawns, they were so cute! Love to have a beer with you if you%26#39;ll be around over the weekend.

Well, I%26#39;ll be... Next time I%26#39;ll check the NHC site BEFORE responding to a weather question. Make that ONE area they%26#39;re watching and one tropical storm, since one of them has turned into the L storm.

You know what, island kitty? You are totally right. I didn%26#39;t mean to sound foolhardy and I am more upset than anyone I know about the whole situation with Katrina. I feel bad that the Keys inhabitants didn%26#39;t have more notice about Katrina than they did because I understand the damage was more than with Dennis. I meant to convey that, oh how can I say this so it won%26#39;t be misconstrued in cyberspace, if there isn%26#39;t a storm when you are departing, don%26#39;t be scared. We had to try, and I stress, just try, or our money would have been lost otherwise. It worked out for us but I wouldn%26#39;t want anyone to put themselves in harm%26#39;s way and I feel that the airlines wouldn%26#39;t let us get as far as we did if there was danger. I think the bottom line is that no one can predict these storms because the conditions change from hour to hour and I defer to your judegement, I am sorry if I sounded cavalier. We had a wonderful time after Dennis and one of the reasons we pushed on was that we really wanted to help with our tourist dollars. We knew that the island was ';open for business';. I know, one more tourist is enough but we bought a necklace from a vendor on Lazy Way the day we got there, we easily could have gotten the same thing here in Milwaukee, I just wanted it. The man who sold it was so grateful and thanked us because he said he really needed the business. We were happy to help, always come in the off season because we can%26#39;t afford high season either. I am so sorry if I sounded stupid and gave bad advice. I just want to help the working people in Key West, we always tip generously etc. because I can%26#39;t even imagine trying to make ends meet on my kind of salary there. Ok, too much information for the rest of you. Thanks for listening and I apologize heartily for the dopey post I left earlier. I hope you all can forgive me...

ManateeLady:

You said: ';... if there isn%26#39;t a storm when you are departing, don%26#39;t be scared,'; and you%26#39;re absolutely right. We usually have plenty of notice, and there%26#39;s no point worrying about something you can%26#39;t control. Airlines won%26#39;t fly you into danger, and incoming flights will be cancelled as soon as an evacuation order is announced. (The announcement usually comes hours before it%26#39;s supposed to start, and they usually announce that one is likely before that.)

And your point about needing the tourist dollars is right on. This is our slow season, and every dollar counts. Katrina was a surprise, but it only slowed us down for a day. Every storm is different, of course, but as long as we have power and our streets aren%26#39;t covered with debris and water, we%26#39;re golden.

I%26#39;m sorry if I came across too harshly... It%26#39;s just one of my hot-button issues!

IK

Island Kitty,

You weren%26#39;t harsh, I was dumb. There are a gazillion people out here that love Key West and wish you well, and get a little too excited. I know that this week is the start of the bad part of hurricane season and I pray for you all every night. We are all in agony over Katrina as I am sure you are too. I for one am scared out of my mind about our home heating oil bill this winter but depending on our tax return next year we will be back to spend all we can on your generous hospitality. I KNOW we will get the opportunity. We have never had a bad experience in Key West. LOVE the KW harbor Inn. I will stop raving now. Have a great night, everyone!